On 20 September 2018, the Office for National Statistics published the latest ‘2016-based’ projections for the future number of households in England, across each local authority. These are long-term projections spanning over 25 years up to 2041. Projections are published every two years, and assumptions are made based on previous demographic trends in population and household formation. It should be noted the figures quoted are projections, not forecasts.
The main points regarding the North East region are summarised below.
Over the next 25 years the number of households in England is projected to increase by 4 million (17%) – equating to 159,000 additional households each year, resulting in 26.9 million households in England by 2041. This is a reduction from the previous 2014-based projections of 210,000 per annum.
The North East household growth has a slower projection at only 8% (92,000) by 2041. This is the slowest of all regions. Not surprisingly, the highest rate of household growth is projected in London – increasing by up to 24%.
However, the 8% growth differs across North East local authorities, as shown in the table below.
|Newcastle upon Tyne||13,453||11.1%|
|Redcar and Cleveland||2,718||4.5%|
Two local authorities in the North West (Barrow-in-Furness and Copeland) and one in Yorkshire and The Humber (Richmondshire) have projected household decreases.
88% of the total growth in households will be headed by someone aged 65 years and over. This is mainly due to the growing proportion of older people in the population compared to previous years.
Household projections have a number of uses, including influencing policy decisions at both a national and local level. However, local authorities are advised to use the projections as a starting point, and not in isolation, since they do not consider local growth policies.
The Government has ambitious targets to raise housing supply to 300,000 per year by the mid-2020s in order to support economic growth, infrastructure investment, affordable housing and regeneration. Interventions will therefore clearly need to be made to ensure local authorities plan for higher housing numbers and to avoid regional disparities.
The full report, including how data is calculated, is available at Household projections in England: 2016-based Report
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